1. 予報円の精度

2013年以降の台風を対象に、台風が予報円の内部に進んだ精度をまとめます。各セルには、1行目に正解/全数、2行目に正解率を精度として表示します。また、予報円内に進む確率は約70%とされているため、正解率70%以上は緑色、正解率70%未満は赤色で表示します。なおこの評価は速報値に基づいており、ベストトラックに基づくものではない点にご注意ください。

番号 3時間 6時間 9時間 12時間 15時間 18時間 21時間 24時間 45時間 48時間 69時間 72時間 96時間 120時間
201826
71/80
88%
76/85
89%
39/39
100%
39/39
100%
32/35
91%
32/35
91%
28/31
90%
24/27
88%
201825
20/20
100%
20/20
100%
20/20
100%
42/48
87%
18/18
100%
17/17
100%
16/16
100%
46/53
86%
23/23
100%
23/23
100%
11/19
57%
11/19
57%
8/15
53%
5/11
45%
201824
21/25
84%
21/24
87%
22/23
95%
46/53
86%
21/21
100%
20/20
100%
19/19
100%
68/70
97%
31/31
100%
31/31
100%
27/27
100%
27/27
100%
21/23
91%
15/19
78%
201823
10/15
66%
9/11
81%
1/2
50%
1/2
50%
201822
71/75
94%
68/71
95%
31/32
96%
31/32
96%
24/28
85%
24/28
85%
21/24
87%
16/20
80%
201821
10/12
83%
10/11
90%
8/10
80%
54/59
91%
6/8
75%
5/7
71%
5/6
83%
57/57
100%
24/25
96%
24/25
96%
21/21
100%
21/21
100%
15/17
88%
10/13
76%
201820
10/11
90%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
34/39
87%
8/9
88%
8/8
100%
7/7
100%
31/39
79%
16/16
100%
16/16
100%
10/12
83%
10/12
83%
8/8
100%
4/4
100%
201819
14/14
100%
13/14
92%
14/14
100%
63/67
94%
13/14
92%
13/14
92%
14/14
100%
63/63
100%
28/28
100%
28/28
100%
17/24
70%
17/24
70%
14/20
70%
7/16
43%
201818
13/18
72%
13/16
81%
3/4
75%
3/4
75%
201817
2/7
28%
3/3
100%
201816
13/27
48%
9/10
90%
9/10
90%
6/6
100%
6/6
100%
2/2
100%
201815
6/6
100%
5/6
83%
6/6
100%
17/26
65%
4/4
100%
3/3
100%
2/2
100%
5/22
22%
0/7
0%
0/7
0%
201814
15/23
65%
16/34
47%
4/13
30%
4/13
30%
2/9
22%
2/9
22%
1/5
20%
1/1
100%
201813
12/12
100%
12/12
100%
12/12
100%
42/47
89%
11/12
91%
12/12
100%
11/12
91%
43/51
84%
21/22
95%
21/22
95%
17/18
94%
17/18
94%
13/14
92%
10/10
100%
201812
18/20
90%
17/20
85%
15/20
75%
47/75
62%
17/20
85%
16/20
80%
14/20
70%
57/71
80%
25/32
78%
25/32
78%
21/28
75%
21/28
75%
10/19
52%
9/15
60%
201811
20/23
86%
17/19
89%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
1/2
50%
1/2
50%
201810
6/8
75%
7/8
87%
6/8
75%
18/34
52%
7/8
87%
8/8
100%
7/8
87%
24/35
68%
14/14
100%
14/14
100%
7/10
70%
7/10
70%
3/6
50%
0/2
0%
201809
12/13
92%
9/9
100%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201808
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
24/27
88%
10/11
90%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
49/51
96%
22/22
100%
22/22
100%
18/18
100%
18/18
100%
14/14
100%
8/10
80%
201807
18/22
81%
19/22
86%
21/22
95%
30/35
85%
21/22
95%
20/21
95%
20/20
100%
27/35
77%
7/14
50%
7/14
50%
4/10
40%
4/10
40%
0/4
0%
1/2
50%
201806
3/13
23%
3/9
33%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201805
6/7
85%
5/7
71%
6/7
85%
19/29
65%
6/7
85%
7/7
100%
7/7
100%
22/25
88%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201804
8/11
72%
12/17
70%
5/5
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201803
16/35
45%
26/53
49%
14/23
60%
14/23
60%
12/19
63%
12/19
63%
14/15
93%
11/11
100%
201802
10/19
52%
8/15
53%
4/4
100%
4/4
100%
201801
1/5
20%
0/1
0%
201727
20/39
51%
27/35
77%
13/14
92%
13/14
92%
9/10
90%
9/10
90%
5/6
83%
2/2
100%
201726
20/41
48%
44/57
77%
25/25
100%
25/25
100%
21/21
100%
21/21
100%
17/17
100%
13/13
100%
201725
2/4
50%
201724
10/14
71%
10/15
66%
3/4
75%
3/4
75%
201723
14/17
82%
13/13
100%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
201722
10/16
62%
12/15
80%
12/14
85%
23/40
57%
10/12
83%
9/11
81%
7/10
70%
28/36
77%
7/14
50%
7/14
50%
6/10
60%
6/10
60%
5/6
83%
2/2
100%
201721
14/18
77%
13/17
76%
11/16
68%
27/47
57%
8/14
57%
10/13
76%
10/12
83%
41/53
77%
21/23
91%
21/23
91%
16/19
84%
16/19
84%
11/15
73%
7/11
63%
201720
12/21
57%
13/23
56%
6/8
75%
6/8
75%
4/4
100%
4/4
100%
201719
20/25
80%
12/21
57%
6/7
85%
6/7
85%
0/3
0%
0/3
0%
201718
23/32
71%
21/31
67%
19/30
63%
49/69
71%
18/28
64%
17/27
62%
19/26
73%
57/65
87%
23/29
79%
23/29
79%
15/25
60%
15/25
60%
11/21
52%
9/17
52%
201717
0/3
0%
201716
5/7
71%
17/19
89%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
2/2
100%
2/2
100%
201715
12/20
60%
10/20
50%
8/20
40%
24/39
61%
15/20
75%
14/20
70%
15/20
75%
31/43
72%
15/18
83%
15/18
83%
12/14
85%
12/14
85%
8/10
80%
6/6
100%
201714
10/21
47%
8/17
47%
3/5
60%
3/5
60%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201713
20/29
68%
20/25
80%
8/9
88%
8/9
88%
5/5
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201712
20/31
64%
28/39
71%
12/16
75%
12/16
75%
6/12
50%
6/12
50%
4/4
100%
201711
4/8
50%
24/25
96%
8/9
88%
8/9
88%
4/5
80%
4/5
80%
0/1
0%
201710
2/7
28%
4/9
44%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201709
2/4
50%
1/4
25%
2/4
50%
15/34
44%
1/4
25%
0/4
0%
0/4
0%
17/30
56%
6/11
54%
6/11
54%
1/7
14%
1/7
14%
1/3
33%
201708
1/11
9%
1/2
50%
1/2
50%
201707
1/5
20%
0/1
0%
201706
20/25
80%
16/27
59%
3/10
30%
3/10
30%
1/6
16%
1/6
16%
0/2
0%
201705
41/48
85%
38/48
79%
37/48
77%
78/89
87%
39/46
84%
41/45
91%
42/44
95%
127/143
88%
64/68
94%
64/68
94%
57/64
89%
57/64
89%
43/60
71%
44/56
78%
201704
10/10
100%
8/8
100%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201703
8/10
80%
8/10
80%
8/10
80%
16/21
76%
5/8
62%
4/7
57%
5/6
83%
17/17
100%
2/5
40%
2/5
40%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201702
6/11
54%
5/7
71%
201701
1/1
100%
2/5
40%
201626
37/42
88%
34/41
82%
17/17
100%
17/17
100%
13/13
100%
13/13
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
201625
5/11
45%
16/17
94%
5/5
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201624
1/13
7%
5/9
55%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201623
7/9
77%
16/29
55%
5/11
45%
5/11
45%
1/7
14%
1/7
14%
0/3
0%
201622
44/51
86%
44/47
93%
19/20
95%
19/20
95%
15/16
93%
15/16
93%
12/12
100%
8/8
100%
201621
43/45
95%
41/41
100%
17/17
100%
17/17
100%
10/13
76%
10/13
76%
7/9
77%
5/5
100%
201620
29/35
82%
27/31
87%
11/12
91%
11/12
91%
8/8
100%
8/8
100%
0/4
0%
201619
7/10
70%
16/27
59%
4/10
40%
4/10
40%
1/6
16%
1/6
16%
0/2
0%
201618
16/21
76%
18/20
90%
18/19
94%
42/59
71%
15/17
88%
14/16
87%
14/15
93%
42/55
76%
20/24
83%
20/24
83%
17/20
85%
17/20
85%
12/16
75%
7/12
58%
201617
5/8
62%
4/8
50%
5/8
62%
34/41
82%
8/8
100%
8/8
100%
8/8
100%
33/37
89%
15/15
100%
15/15
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
7/7
100%
3/3
100%
201616
18/22
81%
16/21
76%
17/20
85%
52/59
88%
17/18
94%
15/17
88%
14/16
87%
44/55
80%
16/24
66%
16/24
66%
11/20
55%
11/20
55%
12/16
75%
8/12
66%
201615
1/1
100%
201614
35/39
89%
30/35
85%
9/14
64%
9/14
64%
7/10
70%
7/10
70%
6/6
100%
2/2
100%
201613
4/11
36%
6/7
85%
201612
24/28
85%
24/27
88%
23/26
88%
22/29
75%
22/24
91%
22/23
95%
22/22
100%
25/25
100%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
4/5
80%
4/5
80%
0/1
0%
201611
8/11
72%
5/7
71%
201610
4/7
57%
6/6
100%
5/5
100%
38/48
79%
3/3
100%
2/2
100%
1/1
100%
61/82
74%
28/37
75%
28/37
75%
27/33
81%
27/33
81%
24/29
82%
22/25
88%
201609
9/13
69%
9/12
75%
10/11
90%
21/28
75%
9/9
100%
8/8
100%
7/7
100%
23/24
95%
5/8
62%
5/8
62%
1/4
25%
1/4
25%
201608
3/3
100%
4/4
100%
201607
4/4
100%
3/3
100%
2/2
100%
12/27
44%
9/23
39%
2/8
25%
2/8
25%
0/4
0%
0/4
0%
201606
14/30
46%
27/43
62%
15/18
83%
15/18
83%
10/14
71%
10/14
71%
1/10
10%
0/6
0%
201605
20/33
60%
29/37
78%
10/15
66%
10/15
66%
10/11
90%
10/11
90%
7/7
100%
3/3
100%
201604
20/26
76%
20/22
90%
6/7
85%
6/7
85%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
201603
9/15
60%
8/11
72%
2/2
100%
2/2
100%
201602
2/5
40%
1/1
100%
201601
30/37
81%
37/45
82%
18/19
94%
18/19
94%
15/15
100%
15/15
100%
9/11
81%
2/7
28%
201527
36/42
85%
33/39
84%
15/16
93%
15/16
93%
10/12
83%
10/12
83%
8/8
100%
4/4
100%
201526
43/51
84%
51/61
83%
18/27
66%
18/27
66%
16/23
69%
16/23
69%
15/19
78%
12/15
80%
201525
48/54
88%
81/87
93%
40/40
100%
40/40
100%
36/36
100%
36/36
100%
25/32
78%
21/28
75%
201524
40/52
76%
49/55
89%
23/24
95%
23/24
95%
20/20
100%
20/20
100%
16/16
100%
12/12
100%
201523
31/38
81%
30/40
75%
16/16
100%
16/16
100%
12/12
100%
12/12
100%
7/8
87%
3/4
75%
201522
22/23
95%
18/19
94%
6/6
100%
6/6
100%
2/2
100%
2/2
100%
201521
10/11
90%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
26/31
83%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
41/47
87%
20/20
100%
20/20
100%
16/16
100%
16/16
100%
10/12
83%
4/8
50%
201520
7/8
87%
6/8
75%
5/8
62%
29/34
85%
4/8
50%
5/8
62%
4/8
50%
30/33
90%
12/13
92%
12/13
92%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201519
5/7
71%
3/3
100%
201518
4/6
66%
5/6
83%
4/5
80%
12/17
70%
2/3
66%
2/2
100%
1/1
100%
11/15
73%
2/4
50%
2/4
50%
201517
57/57
100%
75/75
100%
34/34
100%
34/34
100%
30/30
100%
30/30
100%
25/26
96%
17/22
77%
201516
56/60
93%
74/78
94%
34/35
97%
34/35
97%
31/31
100%
31/31
100%
25/27
92%
16/23
69%
201515
22/24
91%
23/24
95%
22/24
91%
83/84
98%
23/23
100%
22/22
100%
21/21
100%
80/82
97%
36/37
97%
36/37
97%
32/33
96%
32/33
96%
28/29
96%
25/25
100%
201514
41/49
83%
42/45
93%
19/19
100%
19/19
100%
15/15
100%
15/15
100%
11/11
100%
6/7
85%
201513
7/9
77%
6/9
66%
7/9
77%
71/77
92%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
73/73
100%
33/33
100%
33/33
100%
29/29
100%
29/29
100%
25/25
100%
21/21
100%
201512
18/21
85%
19/20
95%
18/19
94%
66/88
75%
17/17
100%
15/16
93%
15/15
100%
67/86
77%
36/37
97%
36/37
97%
32/33
96%
32/33
96%
25/29
86%
19/25
76%
201511
10/10
100%
9/10
90%
9/10
90%
83/93
89%
8/10
80%
8/9
88%
7/8
87%
103/105
98%
47/49
95%
47/49
95%
43/45
95%
43/45
95%
34/41
82%
30/37
81%
201510
16/20
80%
40/53
75%
16/23
69%
16/23
69%
13/19
68%
13/19
68%
9/15
60%
7/11
63%
201509
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
67/79
84%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
81/93
87%
35/43
81%
35/43
81%
31/39
79%
31/39
79%
29/35
82%
23/31
74%
201508
12/19
63%
13/23
56%
4/8
50%
4/8
50%
2/4
50%
2/4
50%
201507
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
57/57
100%
6/6
100%
6/6
100%
6/6
100%
67/83
80%
31/38
81%
31/38
81%
29/34
85%
29/34
85%
26/30
86%
23/26
88%
201506
6/9
66%
6/8
75%
5/7
71%
36/38
94%
5/5
100%
4/4
100%
3/3
100%
61/62
98%
24/27
88%
24/27
88%
22/23
95%
22/23
95%
18/19
94%
13/15
86%
201505
2/2
100%
7/7
100%
201504
46/52
88%
55/61
90%
27/27
100%
27/27
100%
23/23
100%
23/23
100%
19/19
100%
15/15
100%
201503
26/44
59%
31/41
75%
16/17
94%
16/17
94%
13/13
100%
13/13
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
201502
19/25
76%
8/9
88%
8/9
88%
5/5
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201501
30/33
90%
27/29
93%
10/11
90%
10/11
90%
7/7
100%
7/7
100%
3/3
100%
201423
0/2
0%
5/13
38%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
201422
58/75
77%
57/75
76%
32/34
94%
32/34
94%
27/30
90%
27/30
90%
26/26
100%
22/22
100%
201421
10/15
66%
10/11
90%
2/2
100%
2/2
100%
201420
14/17
82%
41/47
87%
20/20
100%
20/20
100%
15/16
93%
15/16
93%
4/12
33%
0/8
0%
201419
24/26
92%
24/25
96%
24/24
100%
69/77
89%
22/22
100%
21/21
100%
20/20
100%
72/77
93%
28/35
80%
28/35
80%
19/31
61%
19/31
61%
21/27
77%
22/23
95%
201418
18/19
94%
19/19
100%
19/19
100%
44/55
80%
17/17
100%
16/16
100%
15/15
100%
43/51
84%
20/22
90%
20/22
90%
14/18
77%
14/18
77%
10/14
71%
5/10
50%
201417
11/23
47%
14/35
40%
4/14
28%
4/13
30%
3/11
27%
3/10
30%
1/7
14%
0/3
0%
201416
37/47
78%
27/43
62%
13/18
72%
13/18
72%
14/14
100%
14/14
100%
10/10
100%
2/6
33%
201415
33/39
84%
29/35
82%
10/14
71%
10/14
71%
7/10
70%
7/10
70%
5/6
83%
1/2
50%
201414
20/23
86%
17/19
89%
6/6
100%
6/6
100%
2/2
100%
2/2
100%
201413
30/37
81%
24/33
72%
9/13
69%
9/13
69%
9/9
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201412
27/34
79%
24/33
72%
10/13
76%
10/13
76%
8/9
88%
8/9
88%
5/5
100%
1/1
100%
201411
29/32
90%
30/32
93%
28/32
87%
32/37
86%
27/32
84%
28/31
90%
27/30
90%
83/96
86%
34/44
77%
34/44
77%
25/40
62%
25/40
62%
22/36
61%
17/32
53%
201410
31/35
88%
43/53
81%
14/23
60%
14/23
60%
14/19
73%
14/19
73%
15/15
100%
7/11
63%
201409
46/59
77%
35/55
63%
17/24
70%
17/24
70%
18/20
90%
18/20
90%
15/16
93%
12/12
100%
201408
24/29
82%
24/28
85%
22/27
81%
49/53
92%
20/25
80%
18/24
75%
17/23
73%
45/49
91%
17/21
80%
17/21
80%
14/17
82%
14/17
82%
12/13
92%
8/9
88%
201407
1/2
50%
5/5
100%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201406
3/3
100%
201405
6/19
31%
2/6
33%
2/6
33%
0/2
0%
0/2
0%
201404
11/14
78%
14/27
51%
9/10
90%
9/10
90%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
2/2
100%
201403
10/19
52%
28/37
75%
15/15
100%
15/15
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
7/7
100%
3/3
100%
201402
6/9
66%
0/5
0%
201401
4/9
44%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201331
0/1
0%
201330
49/57
85%
38/53
71%
17/23
73%
17/23
73%
14/19
73%
14/19
73%
8/15
53%
4/11
36%
201329
23/23
100%
27/39
69%
10/16
62%
10/16
62%
8/12
66%
8/12
66%
4/8
50%
2/4
50%
201328
35/35
100%
35/39
89%
13/16
81%
13/16
81%
12/12
100%
12/12
100%
6/8
75%
0/4
0%
201327
17/18
94%
15/18
83%
16/17
94%
22/23
95%
14/15
93%
14/14
100%
13/13
100%
70/71
98%
32/32
100%
32/32
100%
28/28
100%
28/28
100%
23/24
95%
18/20
90%
201326
6/8
75%
6/7
85%
5/6
83%
15/15
100%
4/4
100%
2/3
66%
1/2
50%
37/37
100%
13/15
86%
13/15
86%
8/11
72%
8/11
72%
2/7
28%
0/3
0%
201325
17/18
94%
38/41
92%
12/17
70%
12/17
70%
12/13
92%
12/13
92%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
201324
11/15
73%
12/15
80%
10/14
71%
23/28
82%
7/12
58%
7/11
63%
5/10
50%
25/30
83%
10/12
83%
10/12
83%
7/8
87%
7/8
87%
0/4
0%
201323
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
20/21
95%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
45/47
95%
19/20
95%
19/20
95%
16/16
100%
16/16
100%
12/12
100%
8/8
100%
201322
19/19
100%
15/15
100%
4/4
100%
4/4
100%
201321
8/10
80%
18/23
78%
3/8
37%
3/8
37%
0/4
0%
0/4
0%
201320
35/37
94%
38/39
97%
16/16
100%
16/16
100%
11/12
91%
11/12
91%
4/8
50%
2/4
50%
201319
22/23
95%
38/45
84%
15/19
78%
15/19
78%
12/15
80%
12/15
80%
9/11
81%
7/7
100%
201318
4/8
50%
4/7
57%
3/6
50%
18/23
78%
4/4
100%
2/3
66%
2/2
100%
16/23
69%
6/8
75%
6/8
75%
3/4
75%
3/4
75%
201317
1/4
25%
0/3
0%
0/2
0%
10/15
66%
7/11
63%
0/2
0%
0/2
0%
201316
7/17
41%
1/5
20%
1/5
20%
0/1
0%
0/1
0%
201315
7/7
100%
6/7
85%
7/7
100%
22/33
66%
7/7
100%
7/7
100%
7/7
100%
27/29
93%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
6/7
85%
6/7
85%
0/3
0%
201314
201313
15/20
75%
36/51
70%
14/22
63%
14/22
63%
10/18
55%
10/18
55%
10/14
71%
6/10
60%
201312
3/6
50%
2/6
33%
2/6
33%
12/27
44%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
5/6
83%
20/31
64%
10/12
83%
10/12
83%
8/8
100%
8/8
100%
4/4
100%
201311
34/40
85%
29/39
74%
12/16
75%
12/16
75%
9/12
75%
9/12
75%
6/8
75%
4/4
100%
201310
7/9
77%
4/5
80%
201309
7/9
77%
19/21
90%
5/7
71%
5/7
71%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
201308
8/11
72%
3/7
42%
201307
10/12
83%
9/12
75%
11/12
91%
40/45
88%
12/12
100%
12/12
100%
11/12
91%
39/41
95%
17/17
100%
17/17
100%
13/13
100%
13/13
100%
9/9
100%
5/5
100%
201306
15/29
51%
14/25
56%
2/9
22%
2/9
22%
1/5
20%
1/5
20%
0/1
0%
201305
14/18
77%
12/19
63%
4/6
66%
4/6
66%
1/2
50%
1/2
50%
201304
4/5
80%
3/4
75%
3/3
100%
13/19
68%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
3/3
100%
15/17
88%
4/5
80%
4/5
80%
1/1
100%
1/1
100%
201303
11/27
40%
12/27
44%
0/10
0%
0/10
0%
1/6
16%
1/6
16%
0/2
0%
201302
0/3
0%
201301
14/15
93%
28/29
96%
11/11
100%
11/11
100%
7/7
100%
7/7
100%
3/3
100%
All
611/734
83%
600/715
83%
587/693
84%
3768/4778
78%
561/638
87%
543/609
89%
522/580
90%
4538/5562
81%
1893/2254
83%
1893/2253
84%
1434/1731
82%
1434/1730
82%
1027/1276
80%
708/919
77%