Typhoon MEARI became an extratropical cyclone just after it traversed across Tohoku Region. The amount of rainfall by this typhoon was far more than the initial estimate especially in Kii Peninsula and Shikoku, which resulted in extensive damage by landslides and floodings.
Typhoon MEARI made landfall around Kushikino city in Kagoshima Prefecture. Kagoshima city has recorded the maximum gust of 52.7 m/s, which indicates that the wind is strong around the center due to the compact size of the typhoon. The amount of rainfall has also increased sustantially in Shikoku and Kii Peninsula long before the approach of the typhoon as 130mm/h+ heavy rainfall recorded at Owase, Mie Prefecture, By the way, Kyushu has not been experienced any typhoon landfalls since Typhoon 199918 for nearly five years, but it has three consecutive landfalls without a time to recover.
Typhoon MEARI was initially forecast to move along the south coast of Honshu, but the forecast was changed to traveling through Honshu after making landfall at Kyushu. The weakening of the typhoon may be earlier than expected, because, after making landfall, the typhoon will travel on the land for a longer distance.
Typhoon MEARI finally started to move toward northeast. It has well-developed rainy clouds in the north and the east. It is forecast to approach to Kyushu, and then move along the southern coast of Honshu.
Typhoon MEARI is passing through between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island. The intensity of the typhoon is getting weaker, and the size of clouds, a little larger. The eye is sometimes not visible on satellite images, but the eye-like structure is still visible on radar images. It seems the track forecast is difficult to make, even for Japan Meteorological Agency, as to until where it keeps its westward move, and when it makes a turn.
Typhoon MEARI is now drawing near to Okinawa Islands. It seems that the typhoon tends to be larger.
Typhoon MEARI is still tiny, but it developed into a mature typhoon with the clearly rounded eye. We should not be unwary of a tiny and strong typhoon. Somewhere in Okinawa may be affected in the near future.
Typhoon MEARI is still a small typhoon but is showing steady intensification for these days. At this moment it is forecast to move south of Sakishima, Okinawa. However, just as in the case of Typhoon SONGDA, it is important to always be alert on the possibility of the abrupt change of its course from westward to northward. In my opinion, this problem should be regarded not as the problem of forecasting technology, but the problem of limitation of the current "probability circle" expression. The current expression represents the uncertainty of forecast under a chosen scenario, and mathematically speaking, it is equivalent to conditional probability. However, even when forecasters are aware of two scenarios, like westward and northward tracks, they cannot express the uncertainty of forecast under multiple scenarios, so they need to pick up the most likely scenario and represent probability circles just under one scenario. This leads to an impression of the discontinous change of forecast when the most likely scenario is switched, and in terms of disaster management, this expression may sometimes give incorrect notions compared to the actual probability. It seems that the current solution is to draw a gigantic probability circle that includes all possible scenarios, but too giantic circles may decrease the value of forecast. Using statistical terms, this problem is identical to the expression of mixture density information, and to obtain a better expression for this kind of information is an interesting issue.
Typhoon MEARI was born in west of Guam and it is forecast to deepen slowly. By the way, the name of the typhoon is given by North Korea. Its english translation "echo" does not sound strange in its own right, but the description is that "It (Echo) means that once Typhoon occurs, the Typhoon Committee notification echoes over to its members." ?? Some typhoon names proposed by North Korea are puzzling, but this name is especially mysterious.
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