Typhoon 200511 (MAWAR) Typhoon Name = (MAWAR) : Rose [Malaysia]


Typhoon MAWAR grazed Izu Peninsula, passed Miura Peninsula, moved along Tokyo Bay, and finally made landfall near Chiba City. Then it went through Chiba Prefecture and Ibaraki Prefecture, and is now heading toward the Pacific Ocean. It recorded the daily rainfall of 528mm at Hakone, and the maximum gust of 57.0m/s at Izu Oshima, but the damage of the typhoon seems to be not significant.


Typhoon MAWAR has tracked northeastward, and the typhoon will make landfall at Izu Peninsula, or at least will pass very near. Torrential rain has been observed in Izu Peninsula and mountainous areas since this afternoon. It is better to check Disaster Information of Rivers (in Japanese) if the level of the river has risen up sharply due to torrential rains.


Typhoon MAWAR keeps moving northward without significant weakening. It is forecast to turn east some time later, but the probability of making landfall increases as the turing point gets later. The thick clouds of the typhoon extend in the north and in the east, so this time those thick clouds will hit the land of Honshu directly. The speed of the typhoon is still slow, and this may increase the danger of the longer period of heavy rain.


Typhoon MAWAR is now crossing the line of 30 degree latitude, approaching nearer to Honshu, and the probability of the typhoon's making landfall is increasing. According to Japan Meteorological Agency's probability circle of center position forecast, places that the typhoon may make landfall range from Kii Peninsula to Boso Peninsula, and there is even a possibility that the typhoon moves across Izu Archipelago without making landfall on Honshu. Generally speaking, a small typhoon is characterized by strong winds in the center, so special attention should be taken for areas where the center of the typhoon reaches just after its making landfall. Also in other areas, please prepare for the typhoon with the latest typhoon information from Japan Meteorological Agency.


Typhoon MAWAR weakened during last night, but now it is in a stable phase, keeping its intensity. From now on, we may need to pay attention to the change of the size, in addition to the change of the strength of the typhoon.


Typhoon MAWAR had the central pressure of 994hPa as of 21 August 00 JST, but just 24 hours later as of 22 August 00 JST, it intensified to the central pressure of 930 hPa. It means that it showed the rapid intensification of as much as 64 hPa per day. At this moment, the eye of the typhoon and the eyewall clouds surrounding the eye is clearly visible. Other factors, such as high sea surface temperature ahead of the typhoon, and the moderate flow of the atmosphere, may be favorable for keeping the intensity of the typhoon. An interference effect between this typhoon and Typhoon GUCHOL in the east does not seem to be apparent at this moment. An overlay of two typhoon tracks shows that they have been moving almost in parallel, but in tendency it looks they are moving apart repulsively. Forecasts by Japan Meteorological Agency and others indicate the same tendency. During the afternoon, Typhoon MAWAR's eye and the whole cloud shape was getting less clear-cut. Its intensity seems to passed one peak between the last night and this morning. There is a possibility of the revival of the typhoon, however, it is still early to be relieved at the weakening of the typhoon.


Typhoon MAWAR's eye is now visible, and, although it is still small, it is transforming to a well-balanced spiral shape, which indicates steady intensification since its birth on yesterday. On the other hand, the tropical depression in east of the typhoon is still difficult to predict if it reaches typhoon intensity or not.


Typhoon MAWAR was born in south of Iwo Jima. This is still a small typhoon, and it will not intensify instantly according to the forecast (it was later updated to a greater deepening rate), but, regarding this place of birth and its forecast track, it is better to pay attention to this typhoon including effects on Japan. There is another tropical depression just in east of this typhoon with the distance of about 1000km, which looks like a twin. If it intensifies into a typhoon, the motion of these typhoons may become complex due to the interaction of typhoons. For your information, it is more convenient for you to use Google Earth Version of Digital Typhoon when you would like to magnify the center of the typhoon.


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