Typhoon 200520 (KIROGI) Typhoon Name = (KIROGI) : Wild goose [North Korea]

2005-10-18

Looking at the typhoon best track of this season, typhoons tend to pass similar areas multiple times. For example, the area between Sakishima Islands, Okinawa and Taiwan has been repeatedly visited by strong typhoons. And another area, Izu Islands, has also seen the frequent strike of typhoons. Typhooon KIROGI is again forecast to pass Izu Islands. The eye of the typhoon is visible, indicating that the typhoon is still maintaining its strong intensity.

2005-10-17

This is not the story of typhoons, but this year hurricane activity was very intense including large-scale disasters caused by Hurricane KATRINA. Today Tropical Storm WILMA was finally born, and this is the 21st named tropical storm which ties a 1933 record for the busiest Atlantic hurricane season. This record is already breaking the previous record of 19 named storms in 1995 among reliable records since 1944. If we have another named storm, that will be the first Greek-alphabet hurricane "Alpha." By the way the number of typhoons this year is a little below average at this moment, so typhoon activity does not show the sign of rising activity in the Western North pacific basin.

2005-10-17

2005-10-13
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2005-10-15
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Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast
2005-10-16
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Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast Japan Meteorological Agency: Typhoon track forecast
It seems that Typhoon KIROGI is the bane of weather forecasters and meteorologists in Japan Meteorological Agency. It moves northward when they forecast an eastward motion, and vice versa. Figures above are the time series of typhoon track forecast published on the Website of Japan Meteorological Agency, and these figures illustrate the frequent modification of forecast circles by weather forecasters thinking over the results of numerical prediction. The reason of the frequent change of forecast is that they cannot decide whether the typhoon will move on the strong flow in the upper troposphere or not. For a moment, the track forecast was modified toward more northward, because the probability was increased that the typhoon cannot move on the strong flow and hence would be pushed backwards. But the forecast today is again modified to the northeastward motion, so the typhoon is again probable to move along the flow. Looking at these figures, someone may take this negatively that the forecast should not change as frequent as this, but we can also read the problem of weather forecasters trying to predict the unusual motions of the typhoon not only by common knowledge but in a way faithful to data.

2005-10-16

Typhoon KIROGI is going to start its sixth day of life, and still staying around its birthplace. It looks like a random-walk typhoon in the summer, but last night its speed increased from "almost stationary" to "slowly" and finally started to move steadily. The circle of center position forecast is still large, however, and this suggests that it is not still certain whether the typhoon is going to keep its northeastward motion with a constant speed. The typhoon is maintaining its intensity while repeating the corruption and recovery of the shape, and the eye is getting larger.

2005-10-14

Typhoon KIROGI is moving around its birthplace for as long as four days. Initially the typhoon was well rounded with the clear-cut pinhole eye. In a day its cloud shape became irregular and the eye larger, but now it seems to be recovered a little from weakening. According to the forecast, it is going to keep its slow speed toward northeast for a moment, showing the fluctuation of its cloud shape.

2005-10-11

Typhoon KIROGI is moving southward, rather unusually. The forecast says it may turn to moving northward tomorrow, but it will perhaps wandering around the current place for some time. The typhoon started intensification today, and the eye is already visible in its relatively small size.

2005-10-10

Typhoon KIROGI was born in south of Japan. This place is relatively close to Japan, but the current forecast says it is going to wander around the current place, so it may not be likely that the typhoon will soon draw near to Japan. But pay attention to the latest typhoon information because forecast changes over time, and anyway the location is not far from Japan.

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