Typhoon NABI is weakening and moving across Japan Sea. Hokkaido, in front of the direction of the typhoon, is heavily raining today, but it is expected that the strong winds of the typhoon will not be as destructive as those by Typhoon 200418 last year. 57 points has broken the maximum record of daily rainfall, and other 4 points recorded the maximum hourly rainfall in history. These statistics indicate that this typhoon may be memorized by its rainfall. As of 18:00, 15 people were killed and 10 were missing, and such damage is reported mainly from the southern part of Kyushu.
Typhoon NABI moved along the west coast of Kyushu, and finally made landfall near Isahaya city, Nagasaki. The typhoon then moved across Saga and Fukuoka to Japan Sea. This typhoon has very strong winds, and the maximum gust of 58.1m/s was recorded at Yakushima before the approach of the typhoon, and 59.2m/s at Tanegashima after the passing of the typhoon. This typhoon, however, can be better characterized by heavy rains more than strong winds (reference : disaster summary). Landslides and flooding have caused severe damage at many places, while this rain is a kind of "blessing" for areas suffering from drought; for example, Sameura Dam in Shikoku had increased its usable capacity from virtually zero to 100 percent in just one day thanks to the heavy rainfall of the typhoon. Some of the points in Miyazaki has exceeded the 1300mm of rainfall since the beginning of the rain, and many points in the south and east of Kyushu has broken their historical record of rainfall. To have an idea of how much it is, we can say that, even during the successive landfall of typhoons landfall last year, the rainfall that exceeds this amount was only once: 1438mm during Typhoon 200410 and Typhoon 200411 (successive landfall). If we go far back to the most rainy typhoon since 1976, namely Typhoon 197617, there are some points that recorded comparable amount of rainfall. Typhoon 197617 and this typhoon share the same cause of heavy rainfall - they slowed down in south of Kyushu, and this caused successive formation of clouds that hit same places. Typhoon has entered into Japan Sea, and the area of heavy rains now moved to Shikoku, Chugoku and Tokai regions. The focus is going to be on how strong the wind will be, and where we have torrential rains due to strong winds at mountain slopes that face southward. If this typhoon does not weaken significantly and moves fast in the middle of Japan Sea, the projected track is similar to the last year's Typhoon 200418, which caused extensive damage due to strong winds.
Typhoon NABI has passed just east of Kikaijima, and is going to pass near to Yakushima and Tanegashima. The forecast track shows that it will make landfall near Kagoshima, move through Kyushu to Japan Sea. Last night, they had heavy rainfall of more than 100mm/h in Tokyo, which is still very far from the typhoon. Today they had tornadoes in Miyazaki. These events indicate that effects were observed in many places far ahead of the approaching of the typhoon. The south of Kyushu (especially in Kagoshima and Miyazaki), which will be affected soon by the core of the typhoon, has been raining very heavily since yesterday, and they will have heavy rains and strong winds for a long period of time because of the typhoon's slow speed. This typhoon still keeps the central pressure of 935hPa, and it is hard to weaken due to its large size. From the viewpoint of typhoon's cloud patterns, it looks like the period of transition from the peak to the mature and the decay stage, but this typhoon is an amazingly powerful typhoon to have the big eye exceeding 100km in diameter, and the still well-balanced cloud shape during a weakening period. Last year we had a big and strong typhoon, Typhoon 200423 (disaster information), that caused disasters at many places in Japan, and we need to be well prepared for this typhoon because it is also a big and strong typhoon.
Typhoon NABI is passing just east of Minami Daito Jima, and the maximum gust of 50.1m/s was recorded on 11:51. According to observation data at Minami Daito (Minami Daito Jima Regional Meteorological Office) (the data is summarized below from the electronic reference room by Japan Meteorological Agency), the maximum sustained wind of 27m/s was recorded on 12:00, so thinking together with the time of maximum gust, the region of maximum wind, namely the region of eyewall clouds, have passed around 12:00 over Minami Daito Jima. The pressure dropped and the wind weakened afterwards, and the minimum pressure of 937.2hPa was recorded on 15:00. and the rainfall was just 0.5mm/h which means there was little rain, so it apparently indicates that this period is when Minami Daito Jima had been within the eye. The visible satellite imagery shows that clouds are scattered within the eye, so it might be sunny in this period. After this, the pressure again started to rise, and the wind started to strengthen. Based on these observations, it can be concluded that, at Minami Daito Jima, 12:00 is the time when the eyewall has passed, and 15:00 is the time when the center of the typhoon has passed. The difference of time is between two and three hours, so the radius of the eye is between 50km and 75km considering the current speed of 25km/h. On the other hand, the maximum gust of 55.6m/s was recorded on 20:32. It took about five hours after passing the center of the typhoon, but this may be because the speed of the typhoon was slowed down to 15km/h, and the radius of the eye is also computed as about 75km. Of course, these figures are overestimated values regarding the radius of the internal eye, but in any case the eye of the typhoon is as gigantic as about 100km in diameter. The typhoon is moving a little eastward than previous forecasts. At this moment the typhoon still keeps well-formed cloud shape, so it is possible that the typhoon will draw near to Amami and Kyushu keeping its strong intensity and the large area of strong winds. You can refer to similar typhoons last year, namely, Typhoon 200416 (disaster information) and Typhoon 200418 (disaster information), and comparison of typhoon tracks.
Meteorological Observation at Minami Daito on September 04, 2005 (cited from the Electronic Reference Room by Japan Meteorological Agency)
Typhoon NABI, from time to time, looks as if it strengthened or weakened a little, but, roughly speaking, it keeps its well-formed structure and gigantic eye since yesterday. In terms of forecast, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) predicts that it keeps the current intensity, while Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicts that it will intensify again. In either case, the typhoon is expected to draw near to Okinawa as a "very strong" typhoon.
Typhoon NABI still seems to be in the trend of intensification. Clouds around the center are very thick, taking well-balanced circular shape, the eye is about 100km in diameter, and the air in the neighborhood has been actively taking into and pouring out from the typhoon. The eye of the typhoon sometimes enlarges during the weakening process, but it may be rare to see such a big and clear eye in its mature stage. Another feature of this typhoon is the large area of strong winds, so the wide range of areas is expected to be affected by the typhoon when the typhoon draws near to Japan.
Typhoon NABI is showing off large-scale spiral clouds in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Today it looks from numbers as if the intensification has stopped. But it may be because the typhoon has intensified too much yesterday, or it entered the area where Typhoon TALIM has just passed recently. Under favorable conditions, it is expected that the typhoon starts intensification again.
Typhoon NABI keeps intensification in large-scale spiral clouds. Saipan is now within the area of 50-knot winds, and Guam is within the area of 30-knot winds. Typhoon TALIM was compared to an "elite typhoon," and Typhoon NABI may be compared to an "wild typhoon." Typhoon NABI may strengthen into powerful typhoons like Typhoon 200416 and Typhoon 200418, because they are similar in place and time of year. The central pressure of the typhoon has dipped below 950hPa easily, and it seems the peak of the typhoon is still far ahead.
Typhoon NABI was born in Mariana Islands. This typhoon is forecast to pass near Saipan, and to deepen constantly for the moment. This area is known to generate powerful typhoons, so we need to pay attention to this one.
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