Typhoon YAGI is now approaching to Ogasawara Islands. It will come to the closest from midnight to tomorrow morning, and Haha-jima has already entered into the area of 50-kt winds. The track of the typhoon may be very close on the west side from Ogasawara, which means the "worst" course for Ogasawara. Similar central pressure was recorded at Miyako-jima when Typhoon No.14 in 2003 (which is coincidentally the same number as this typhoon) passed near Miyako, and the maximum gust of 74.1m/s was recorded during the typhoon.

Typhoon YAGI has started rapid intensification since yesterday, and the central pressure finally dropped down to 910hPa. The forecast track is threading through islands in the Pacific Ocean from Iwo Islands (Volcano Islands) to Ogasawara Islands. Iwo Jima (Iwo Island) reminds us of the evacuation of the people in Minami Torishima to Iwo Jima when Typhoon IOKE struck Minamitori-shima. According to Wikipedia, in comparison to relatively flat Minami Torishima, Iwo Jima is a volcanic island still increasing its altitude, so there may be some places to evacuate from the storm surge, but it is ironic that people working for the meteorological agency once evacuating from a typhoon will meet another powerful typhoon on another island, which suggests this year is a unfortunate year for islands. And the next comes Ogasawara Islands. The list of typhoons that passed near Ogasawara Islands in history can be searched from Search by Place (Lat / Lon), and it revealed that especially powerful typhoon that passed near Ogasawara (Chichi-jima) is Typhoon 198317 since the return of the place from the U.S. to Japan in 1968. The list of typhoons that hit Ogasawara Islands (in Japanese) says that the minimum pressure of 932.5hPa with the maximum gust of 58.6m/s was recorded during the typhoon. If the typhoon will keep its current intensity before drawing near to Ogasawara Islands, the strong winds and rains will exceed those recorded at that time.

Typhoon YAGI has been a compact typhoon from its birth, but its clouds tend to be a little expanding these days, with its direction gradually gaining a northward movement, so it seems that the typhoon will soon have its peak stage. Because this is a small typhoon, the effect of rains and winds may be small without the direct hit of the typhoon, but, conversely, the direct hit of the typhoon will cause very severe rains and winds near the center. It may be a bad news for Ogasawara Islands, which are contained in the forecast circles.

Typhoon YAGI was formed in southeast of Minami Tori Shima. This typhoon is forecast to stay around the birthplace for some time. To make sure, this is not Typhoon SHANSHAN that is now about to make landfall at Kyushu, so please do not be confused with this one.