Typhoon KETSANA has brought severe disasters in South East Asia, and the death toll is increasing over time to reach about 400. The specific numbers differ from media to media, but some media say that the death toll is 331 in Philippines, 92 in Vietnam and 14 in Cambodia. Especially in Philippines, the typhoon disaster is related to the problems of poverty, since most of the people who killed by floods did not have other choices than living in risky areas along rivers. In addition, another concern is Typhoon PARMA which is approaching to Philippines with a very strong intensity.

Typhoon KETSANA seems to make landfall between Quang Ngai and Hoi An in central Vietnam. Information from the site is fragmented, such as 23 people were killed, 170,000 people were evacuated, and rivers are flooding, but more information is hard to obtain partly due to blackout across affected provinces. On the other hand, in Philippines where the typhoon has already passed, the number of casualties increased to 240, and is likely to increase more. The number of people evacuating reached 375,000, and people in the affected areas are at a loss what to do with the large amount of muds everywhere around them. It is a question whether the Philippine government can take appropriate actions in the extensive disasters of this scale, and international aids have alerady started to help this situation.

Typhoon KETSANA is moving toward Vietnam, and the typhoon is going to make landfall near Da Nang in the central Vietnam. This typhoon is still keeping intensity which is very strong in this area. Some areas in Vietnam are already inside the storm wind circle (more than 50kt) and clouds around the typhoon are already covering Vietnam. Storm tide due to strong winds is another concern for low-lying areas. After making landfall, the typhoon will be weakened, but rainy clouds will remain, so countries in South East Asia such as Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia should be prepared for heavy rains.

Typhoon KETSANA has caused extensive disasters in Philippines. The official death toll reached 86, but the damage is expected to increase from now because situation in rural areas is still not collected, and the number of casualties is increasing as the water level going down. It is reported that the highest water level reached about 6 meters, and it is very difficult to escape from the water of that height. Many people are still waiting for help on the rooftops, and more than 80% of Manila city was inundated, so this disaster may be the worst floods at Metropolitan Manila in this half century. On the other hand, the typhoon is approaching to the central part of Vietnam with its intensity being stronger. This typhoon has especially large gale wind area (more than 30 kt) and it has been enlarged to cover the whole South China Sea to become a "super large" typhoon (note that the storm wind area (more than 50 kt) is not so large). The typhoon is still in an intensification phase, and the distribution of clouds suggests that the western part of the typhoon, namely the direction toward Vietnam, will be severely affected. Following the extensive disasters in Philippines, it is necessary to be well prepared for heavy rains in the central and north Vietnam.

Typhoon KETSANA has brought 24-hour rainfall of 410mm at Manila, and this is the largest record in these 40 years. This resulted in flashfloods at many places, and many people are still waiting for help. It is reported that 52 people were killed and 20 were missing. The clouds of typhoon, however, have already left Philippines to South China Sea, and thick clouds in the west side of the typhoon are getting closer to Vietnam.

Typhoon KETSANA is not a strong typhoon, but it has very thick rainy clouds, and they have poured heavy rains over Philippines. According to PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), the 6-hour rainfall at Manila recorded 341mm, which exceeded the historical record of "24-hour rainfall" of 334mm. It is also close to the monthly rainfall of 392mm at Manila. Last month we had extensive disasters in Taiwan by Typhoon MORAKOT, but these rainfall records also suggest extensive disasters in Philippines, and we are now receiving more reports on floods at many places.

Typhoon KETSANA was formed in east of Philippines. This typhoon is forecast to traverse the north of Luzon Island to South China Sea, and keep moving westward to reach near Vietnam. By the way, today is the 50th anniversary of the landfall of Isewan Typhoon (Typhoon 195915) on September 26, 1959. Isewan Typhoon caused the largest typhoon disaster in recorded history of Japan, and more than 5000 people were killed or missing. Many cities and towns along the coast of Ise Bay have memorial ceremonies today. Similar disasters caused by Isewan Typhoon could happen in other places, so I hope that this special day serves as a good opportunity to learn about the disaster happened 50 years ago.